He will split time with utility player Chris Taylor, who started at shortstop against Texas on Wednesday. With a 21.8 percent infield fly ball rate, he hit the ball up the elevator shaft more often than any batter with at least 400 plate appearances. Taylor may also appear at third base in Cactus League games. While the $330 million figure is likely the one that jumps out, I would direct your attention to the smallest number: $159 million. by Retrosheet. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. With Taylor refocusing on the infield, Roberts suggested he would be less likely to fill the void at center field. Perhaps the most aggravating trends for Heyward are his propensity to pop the ball up, producing gimme outs, and chop the ball into the ground, failing to make good use of his prodigious power and 6-foot-5, 240 pound frame. Solid production, that, despite some disappointing seasons mixed in. A year ago, Jason Heyward was a fantasy baseball stud muffin. Dropping down Heywards offense by 20 runs still yields no other results. Phillies (24th, 1.4 WAR) With Bryce Harper undergoing Tommy John surgery and likely to miss the first half of the season, the spotlight is again on Nick Castellanos, whose performance in the first year of his five-year, $100 million deal was downright dreadful. If he took the same type of offensive step forward as Carlos Beltran and Reggie Smith, he might win an MVP. With an injury (and a team deflation) taking some of the wind out of Stantons sails, and Buster Posey blowing up the National League Most Valuable Player debate, the new toys got a lot more attention than the old new ones. If you took Jason Heyward in your draft this year you almost certainly spent a pretty penny on him. The Cubs released Heyward. Jason Heyward LAD OF L Born: 08/09/1989 Age: 33 FanGraphs Player Page Auctions are not allowed at this time On MLB 40-man: NO Acquired: Free Agent (CHC) Dec'22 Positions OF Overall Last 10 All. Since Heyward is also the tallest of the four young outfielders at six-foot-five, we have reason to be worried about how long this can hold up for him. Its ever so early, but it seems like he could be working on that. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. His rookie year was off-the-charts good Hitters might not want to hear this, but Phillies ace Zack Wheeler just added another pitch to his arsenal. Age plays a crucial rule in projecting a players long-term performance, and Heyward still has plenty of development time left before he reaches what are typically the peak years of a hitters career. To me, that looks light, and as a huge Heyward fan I am doing my best in putting that out there without bias. 2022 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. Heyward remains a tempting upside guy on draft day, but its hard to bid on him too far beyond the price tag of a No. Heres a powerful triple to center. Sadly, the only skill that Heyward hasnt displayed during his bright, brief career is health. While those deals might no look great now, age is a major factor. Shelby Miller is a good young pitcher, but straight up for Heyward? Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Its hard not to fall in love with the fantasy potential of Jason Heyward, especially for those of us who cant forget the cant-miss hype surrounding his debut and a rookie season that seemed like the precursor to imminent superstardom. Gomber is working on a two-seam, sinking fastball that he hopes will work at altitude. Notes: PitchCom, Jason Heyward, cold weather Dodgers pitchers are hesitant to use the PitchCom device to call their own pitches. His BABIP this season is .256, while his expected BABIP sits around .315. The team is confident in Jason Heyward. by Retrosheet. Prior to the . If Heyward were coming off a .270/.365/.445-type season instead, you can bet he wouldnt be getting drafted behind guys like Corey Hart and Jayson Werth. To bring this all back: There are very early signs that Jason Heyward is focusing more on the pull half of the field. Given his decent wheels, it seems highly unlikely that Heyward will continue to keep company with players who run like they have grand pianos strapped to their backs. Heyward managed to nab nine bases in 11 tries last year, and Bill James projects hell have 14 SB in 2012. The team is confident in . There are not enough players here to draw conclusions, but it might be worth looking into whether good, young defensive players age better overall as hitters. With an acknowledgment to the variance in sample size, we can compare the pitch locations of his 2014 against his first four big league seasons: As you might have guessed, thats bad news for Heyward, who, like many left-handed hitters, does his best work when hes able to feast on balls down and in. How much will he be worth? The team appears content to begin the season with Trayce Thompson as the starter. Maybe hed find a different path to a familiar destination. I looked through age 25, but lacking enough comps, expanded the age range to 26 years old. The lack of power does prevent easy comparison to most free agent mega-deals. Heres why. Can you imagine what he would have batted if he had been in the Carolina League or the Pac-12 over the past couple of years? The games, as you well know, havent mattered yet. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not. Free agent Jason Heyward agreed to a $184 million, eight-year contract with the Cubs, according to a person familiar with the negotiations. Limiting Heyward comps solely to free agents leaves little by way of realistic comparison. Crawford debuted young, but due to a team-friendly contract, he did not become a free agent until after his age-28 season, three years older than Heyward. First, there are questions as to whether Heyward is actually worth as much as the defensive metrics say he is. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. This spring, Heyward has hit 18 flies and liners, and hes sent two of them toward left. sent RF Jason Heyward on a rehab assignment to Gwinnett Braves. Mark Kotsay did not do well overall, but he was actually averaging around three wins per season from 26 to 30 before having a negative value as his career wound down. Double-digit steals is a nice perk for a guy with potentially elite OBP and power numbers. The Dodgers announced Thursday that they've signed free-agent outfielder Jason Heyward to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training. It happens. At an age when most players are chasing a trip to Omaha or cutting their teeth in Low Class-A, Jason Heyward crushed major league pitching in 2010. But, after falling to a .227/.319/.389 triple-slash and 14 homers in 2011 while bothered by a bum shoulder, Heyward ranks 31st among outfielders (114th overall) in MockDraftCentral.coms latest ADP rankings. Instead, Heyward will step into the box for his first post-All-Star at-bat with a .226/.315/.404 triple-slash. The next group of comps considers only offensive production. Its impossible for anyone outside of the Braves training room and front office to assess Heywards health. . Im sure you dont think about ground-ball pull rate very often, but I like it as an indicator of change. I looked for outfielders from 1960 to 2007 who produced defensive runs above average (which includes the positional adjustment) within 20 runs of Heywards 61.9 runs above average mark. Sure, Bourn did not light the world on fire with his wRC+ of 117 and slash line of .274/.348/.391, but it was 17.0 percent better than league average. Last season was a huge disappointment for the Los Angeles Dodgers, as they were dropped in the NLDS by the rival San Diego Padres. He flew out to center field in his other at-bat in Friday's game. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. According to FanGraphs, the 26-year-old was worth 6.0 fWAR (FanGraphs' Wins Above Replacement) in '15the sixth most WAR among outfielders. Hes forever been a work in progress, so maybe hed change his focus on a whim. I am obligated to mention that Mike Trout still has two more seasons to add to his totals. When signing long-term contracts, teams tend to pay them out equally over the length of the contract. Consider this an expansion on Matt Klaasens crowning of Jason Heyward as the King oF Little Things if you will. Reported as the pre-2023 season number of waiver options remaining. Notable in the Dodgers lineup is Jason Heyward playing in back-to-back games for the first time this spring, starting in centerfield for the second straight day. Even if Heyward were to hit for more power, that might be offset by a drop in singles, or by an increase in strikeouts. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors These comparable players here are not quite as accomplished as those from the WAR group above, which is to be expected given defense is not taken into account. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors While Heyward did fall into some bad habits at the plate last year and has some durability concerns, this is a perfect time to buy low on a youthful outfielder with superstar potential. With the exception of ZiPS, the projection systems (and the fans) see Heyward as more of a .270 hitter with a high OBP and 20-homer power in 2012: ZiPS: .255/.360/.427, 17 HR With better luck, health and a little more development, Heyward could be a monster in 2012. Thats 40-50 points below the NL average and ranks among the likes of Aubrey Huff and Yorvit Torrealba. Signup . But theres real doubt about his ability to deliver even 15 home runs or produce high amounts of runs and RBIs in that lineup, regardless of where he hits. ESPN, FanGraphs, MLB Pipeline . As teams expect to get the best production at the beginning of the contract, they understand that a contract will likely underpay the player in the early years and potentially overpay him as he ages with the surplus from the beginning ideally canceling out the loss at the end. His expected BABIP (xBABIP), which is based on home runs, strikeouts, stolen bases, and batted ball data, was about .315. And then well see if he wants to stay on the same course. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Now, increasingly deprived of opportunities to pull pitches, Heyward in recent years has been going the other way more often, and 2014 saw more than 19% of his plate appearances end with him hitting the ball to the opposite field, a new career high, and a credible explanation for the plunge in distance and home runs. Jason Alias Heyward (born August 9, 1989), nicknamed " J-Hey " is an American professional baseball right fielder for the Los Angeles Dodgers organization. I then looked at age-25 performance and eliminated anyone who was not within two wins of Heywards six-win season this year. Jason Heyward is not immune from those forces, but based on what he has done so far, his future could provide his employer with significant value on one of the biggest contracts in MLB history. It was a massive year-to-year swing, as Bogaerts concentrated on getting hits the other way. To isolate players similar to Heyward, I looked for players from 1960 to 2007 within five of Heywards 27.8 WAR and within 20% of his 3429 plate appearances. Second, if Heywards defense declines he ages, he is not likely to be of much value. Perhaps rightfully so. Attempting to measure defense with advanced statistics like UZR and DRS has its critics, and attempting to place a value on it can be difficult. by Handedness. Jason Heyward, who was instrumental in the lore of the infamous Game 7 rain delay, was once the thorn in the side of fans looking for a scapegoat to blame for the club's lack of spending. Rojas, a 34-year-old, glove-first veteran, was acquired in the winter to aid the groups depth. Our premise is that their bad (or Here is how they performed over their next ten seasons. Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball. Dont look at me. He started 13 games there in 2021 and six last season, but John Schneider is expecting more of a 50-50 split for Biggio between the infield and outfield this season, adding that hell play a ton of outfield. It would be a tragedy if nagging injuries keep him from playing to his full potential. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted News; Wikipedia: . Quite obviously, Im lukewarm on Heyward, and his upside might merit a few dollars more, but Id need to see him take a step forward before I start paying for him as a frontline fantasy cornerstone. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Whether he finds a home with Cleveland certainly wont depend on whether Quinn can maintain his power output. In the *other* MVP debate, Miguel Cabrera represented, perhaps, a belief in the older-school stats, those three fetishized numbers that have been in the newspapers since the games inception. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors There are only four players ahead of him on both offense and defense: Evan Longoria, Johnny Bench, Barry Bonds, and Cal Ripken. Gift a Membership. Instead, Heywards dinger deficiency has been the byproduct of some ominous declines: Whats changed? And its easy to identify the problem: Observers wish that Heyward would hit for more power. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. The hard contact, however, is further reinforcement that some offseason swing changes are paying dividends. Roberts described Jason Heyward, the former Cub who came to Dodgers camp as a non-roster invite, as more than adequate in the field at center. Despite three home runs in his first five spring at-bats, thats not really part of his game. Going solely by offense, this group has a total bust rate of one in three. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. Their average WAR is below. Are the extra outside swings, pop ups and grounders the result of his shoulder ailment, or normal growing pains for a player who wont turn 22 until August? Oliver: .273/.367/.475, 19 HR and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Also keep in mind that ZiPS, Bill James and Oliver dont know that Heyward was taking cuts with a bad shoulder last year; they just see a young guy who struggled after a fantastic rookie year. Heres a bomb to right. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. And he continued to hit far too many ground balls (nearly 54 percent of the time he put it in play), limiting his power output (.162 ISO). In particular, Heyward has a .188 BABIP on ground balls. This figure is not a conclusory number or necessarily the best way for projections, but simply another method in the attempt to find a likely value for Jason Heyward. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Heyward is not Trout-level amazing, but he has been incredibly productive through his age-25 season. It doesnt matter that Heyward has still been productive; he looks like he should be a beast of a hitter, so its odd to see him hit singles and doubles. The way hitters hit the ball is a reflection of the swing and the approach, and so look at what you see above. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. "I've talked . A decade ago, the serious baseball fan serious, as in desperately wanting to increase his or her chances of winning his or her fantasy league had few places to turn. So its difficult to shake the tinge of disappointment thats come to hang around Heyward in the past couple of years, not necessarily because hes done anything wrong he is, after all, just 25 years old and boasts a career .345 wOBA but because in him we see fantasy studliness, and cant help but feel let down each year when he falls short of making good on his immense potential. Higgins over one inning. Watch as both teams attempt to take one step closer to . Im not all that mad about it. Only Garrett Jones (three of 108) had a smaller percentage of GDPs with a minimum of 100 opportunities. Overall, the group still put up above average numbers offensively. dodgersnation.com - Jeff Snider 10h Read more on dodgersnation.com and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. But the power was largely absent. Career statistics and player information from MLB, or ESPN, or Baseball Reference, or Fangraphs, or . His 23 percent infield/fly ball rate is third-highest in the majors, trailing only Corey Patterson and Mark Trumbo. The coaches that were working with me were trying to get me to throw a sinker because sometimes my fastball sinks, Oviedo said. 2023 Updated In-Season Projections 12 years and 0 . by Retrosheet. Weve seen Heyward hit the ball out to right, and weve seen him hit the ball out to left. Interestingly, although Heyward swung less frequently than in any season since his 2010 debut, he finished with a 10.3% walk rate thats below his career average and set a new personal low for pitches per plate appearance. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Forget about everything else. . Kiner-Falefa was a defensive whiz with 10 Defensive Runs saved in 2022, helping result in the lowest runs allowed per game in the Bronx since 1981. Historically, Heyward has pulled just over half his grounders. Trejo, 27, is fine with pushing for all the starts he can at second if thats his opportunity to be in the lineup. Id imagine all those infield popups are at least partly due to his bum shoulder. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Players who rove around the outfield will qualify at the specific outfield position where he played the most innings provided it was a minimum of 75 percent (475 innings) of total innings at the specific position. I cant wait to see how this turns out. by Retrosheet. Perhaps its fitting, if random, that Heywards most recent highlights on MLB.com are all home-run-saving catches. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Especially because of the accidental report that floated this week about Canario already being back on the field doing baseball work (he's not; still way too early for . Biggio knows right field well. Dec 11 2015 Signed an 8 year $184 million contract with Chicago (CHC) Nov 15 2015 Player declined $15.8 million qualiying offer. And Heywards 57 percent ground ball rate places him among lightweights like Alexi Casilla, Kosuke Fukudome and Elvis Andrus. Bill James: .269/.374/.457, 21 HR Heyward was coming off a rookie season in which he popped 18 home runs and batted .277/.393/.456 at age 20, tying him with Ty Cobb for the 15th best OPS+ ever for a hitter who qualified for the batting title but couldnt legally buy a beer. We're asking for your help to make it. Jason Heyward graphs for Major League baseball. As such, its hard to decide what to make of Heywards 2014 season, in which he finished 34th among outfielders in Zach Sanders rankings, as he made strides as a contact hitter while taking a step back in the power department. FanGraphs' Roster Resource has Adrian Sampson in the fifth spot in the rotation, but he has the ability to function as a long reliever/sixth starter if need be. It was a true comfort level, not rattled at all. Time now for our annual spin through players whose luck in 2022 was worse (or better) than their fortune deserved. Heyward made just one out on an attempted advance in 19 tries. by Handedness, Whos Been (Un)luckyThe Starting Pitchers. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Theres very little fly-ball action in left field. by Retrosheet. Averaging out to a league average player for a total of ten years is a decent feat. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. But a lot of the value Heyward accumulated last season he did in a fashion that might seem Troutian. Which can be overcome, but only by also hitting fewer grounders. His 2012 projections are strong While Fangraphs weighs his overall contribution at 4.7 WAR for 2013, his UZR/150 (23.9) and Defensive Runs Saved (41) paint a picture of a high-floor player. Crawford is WAY ahead of simba according to pretty much every defensive metric this year. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Heyward might not be a burner, but he has posted average-ish Speed Scores so far and has rated as an above-average base runner overall. Donate to FanGraphs. Heyward will get paid. De Paula hit .350/.448/.522 with 13 doubles, five home runs, and two triples in 53 games in the Dominican Summer League in his professional debut, and the power was intriguing enough that FanGraphs wasn't alone on an island. He went first to home on a double six of nine times, which is about average. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Simply put, players who dominate the competition at such a young age often end up in Cooperstown, not benched in favor of Jose Constanza. Jason Heyward pitch% heatmaps. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Last year he hit for almost zero power, and his grounder pull rate went from 68% to 43%. . Heyward does need to keep the ball of the grass and pare down the pop ups to truly tap into his power, but its important to remember that hes still younger than many celebrated rookies and prospects. Keep looking at him, and also keep looking at his numbers, as the season begins and wears on. How many hitters (much less 21-year-old hitters) could manage a league-average batting line in the majors while injured and watching so many balls put in play gravitate toward gloves? He clobbered 27 homers when he was 22. Mike Trout represented, perhaps, a belief that we could quantify the other aspects of the game and assign them value. The chart below shows the varying WAR averages from above for Jason Heyward comps at age-26 through age-30, as well as 26-35. Cubs president Jed Hoyer announced Monday the club intends to release veteran outfielder Jason Heyward from the final year of his deal at the end of the 2022 season. $8? Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor will play shortstop for now. Yet, its difficult to project just how hell play during the rest of the season. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. FOX Sports - Rowan Kavner 1d. He made his MLB debut that night against the Washington Nationals as a replacement for Jason Heyward, going hitless in 3 at-bats. Eno, how do you have the nerve to put up a Jason Heyward article before an article about Chone Figgins release? The chart below shows the varying WAR averages from above for Jason Heyward comps at age-26 through age-30, as well as 26-35. Using a similar exercise, I found only 28 players with at least 25 fWAR and bWAR (FanGraphs WAR and Baseball Reference WAR, respectively) since the end of World War II. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Obviously, Heyward is nowhere near as good as Rodriguez was then, but the argument for blowing the budget to sign him is a similar one. Its not surprising. Earlier this week, August Fagerstrom took a look at recent seasons authored first of Mike Trout and then of Clayton Kershaw and compared them to the greatest peaks of all time. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Alan Trejo will likely move into the second base spot with Brendan Rodgers on the IL. When Heyward is Ellsburys age, he will have just finished Year Six, or might have already opted out for another big contract. 42 bayberry lane, westport, ct,